By Tracy Record
West Seattle Blog editor
In June 2016, the Sound Transit Board voted to go to the ballot with the ST3 plan, including light rail to West Seattle by 2030. At the time, the WS extension was bundled with the Ballard extension, and the cost of both was estimated to total $7.1 billion.
Eight years later, that’s the new high-end estimate for West Seattle light rail alone (Ballard is proceeding on a different track).
Revised cost estimates arrive as the board is on the verge of finalizing a route and station locations for the West Seattle extension. The Final Environmental Impact Statement is out, and the board’s Executive Committee was told today that a project recommendation is expected to emerge from the System Expansion Committee in just three weeks. But will it resemble the “preferred alternative” that’s been studied, given the new potential price tag?
ST’s new deputy CEO for megaproject delivery, Terri Mestas, spoke calmly about the “cost evolution” as she and West Seattle project leader Jason Hampton presented their update at the committee meeting. Mestas listed a wide variety of factors for the higher estimate, from the methodology used in estimating to the higher cost of materials such as concrete to “market conditions” such as a “limited labor and contractor pool.”
In addition, “process delays” and “pandemic impacts” figured into it too, Mestas said.
This was a briefing, not a prelude to a vote, so the committee members’ discussion was limited to some early takes. The committee’s chair, King County Executive Dow Constantine – observing that he’s the only board member who lives in West Seattle – said he’s “disappointed” by the new estimate. But, he stressed, it’s “important not to be paralyzed or overwhelmed” by the number, to get the project “designed and shovel-ready,” while moving ahead “in financially prudent ways.” He said he’s drafting a motion for next week’s full board meeting to “inform” their forthcoming financial decisions. Constantine opened his remarks with a defense of West Seattle light rail – which he led the fight to get into the ST3 ballot measure in 2016 – saying the peninsula needs “redundancy,” and citing a recent (unattributed) poll as showing that 72 percent of peninsula residents want light rail.
Committee member Claudia Balducci, a King County Councilmember from the eastside, invoked a modified version of the Serenity Prayer in her comments, saying it’s important to “understand what we can and can’t change … let’s get to work on what we can influence.”
Committee member Bruce Dammeier, Pierce County Executive, called the estimate “very concerning … we should all be concerned about the impact on the rest of the system … there may be some very difficult decisions ahead of us.” He also urged that the focus stay on “delivering ridership” rather than “the nicest stations” and other discretionary elements.
Speaking of ridership, West Seattle project leader Hampton recapped those projections during his part of the briefing, which was meant to hit key points of the Final EIS, not just the cost estimates:
Hampton noted that the high-end Junction estimate is what they’d expect to see there if the Avalon station is dropped – which remains a possibility – and that the Delridge ridership would in large part be people transferring from buses. He also briefly recapped the routing/station-location alternatives studied for the Final EIS; you can see those pages in the full slide deck.
Two routing-specific comments were heard from community members at the start of the meeting. First, a business owner at Jefferson Square – currently expected to be demolished for construction of the Junction station – said a coalition had come together around proposing that the location be moved a short distance east to the Bank of America site instead. Next, a property owner in the Avalon area said the DEL6A option makes more sense than the currently “preferred” DEL6B. She was followed by John Niles of Smarter Transit – whose Sound Transit-skeptic group held a West Seattle event two months ago – saying the WS project’s metrics are “unsustainable.” The numbers are “screaming ‘do not build’,” he contended. Marilyn Kennell, whose home is in the project’s potential path, said terms of the original 2016 vote allowed for reconsideration, and repeated calls for a West Seattle town hall – “We need a conversation.” And two other West Seattleites, Kim Schwarzkopf and Lucy Barefoot, urged that the project simply not be built.
Earlier in the meeting, there was a glimmer of hope on the financial front, when interim CEO Goran Sparrman (whose time in that role has just been extended into next year) talked about “reforms” he said had been recommended by ST’s Technical Advisory Group. He said they hope to apply some of them to the West Seattle project “as part of a suite of cost-control measures.”
So here’s the timeline they’re working on for decisionmaking – a routing/station-location recommendation on October 10, a board vote as soon as October 24:
But, as clarified in response to a question from Dammeier during committee members’ discussion, voting on “the project to be built” isn’t the same thing as allocating money for it – that would happen about two years later, Constantine and Mestas clarified. How much money will be needed – that depends on those “difficult” decisions in the weeks ahead. In the big picture, here’s the expected timeline for design and construction:
In ST3, West Seattle light rail was projected for a 2030 launch; in 2020, that was pushed to 2031; it moved to 2032 one year later, when ST “realigned” its multi-project schedule because of dramatically increasing costs.
REMINDER: Though the Final EIS has been available since last week, its official publication date is tomorrow (Friday, September 20), and ST plans a series of informational meetings starting next Wednesday:
When: Wednesday, Sept. 25, 4:30-6:30 p.m.
Where: Youngstown Cultural Arts Center, 4408 Delridge Way SW, West Seattle
Spanish, Vietnamese, and Somali interpretation will be provided.When: Tuesday, Oct. 1, 4:30-6:30 p.m.
Where: Alki Masonic Center, 4736 40th Ave SW, West Seattle
Spanish and Vietnamese interpretation will be provided.When: Wednesday, Oct. 2, 11 a.m.-1 p.m.
Where: Gallery B612, 1915 First Ave. S, SODO
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